Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
